I’ve always wondered: Is it possible to reliably win money betting on sports using math? If yes, then how much? Do you get banned by the bookmakers if you actually win consistently? Today I’ll start on a journey to answer these questions.
I’ve wondered how I’m going to find out if it’s possible or not, and I’ve come to the conclusion that I’ll just try my best and see if that succeeds or not. Other than the fact that this will take a great deal of time and effort there are two reasons why this is difficult:
- If I lose rather than win any money is it then just because I’m not good enough? Or is it because it’s impossible (or close to impossible)?
- If I actually win money was it then just because I was lucky? Or did I actually do something right?
I’m not sure yet how to address either (1) or (2). So let’s leave that worry for a later time when we actually can see if I win or lose. But for now, the main thing is to just get started!
Speaking of getting started, I need to find a sport and determine how to bet.
Sport: I’ve always been a football (i.e. soccer) fan, and follow the English Premier League (EPL) quite a bit. So let’s start there. An obvious next step could be the Danish Superliga (since I’m from Denmark) if there’s enough trading volume to make it feasible (let me elaborate on trading volume in another post).
How to bet: I’ll bet via Betfair. There are two reasons for doing this: (1) They have an API that will allow me to programmatically bet, and (2) I’ve heard that they don’t ban you if you win, but that other sites will.
My goal is that I’ll write something on this blog every day – let’s see if I manage to do that.
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