Can you beat the odds using math?

If we are given odds for a home win, draw, and away win, we can convert them to probabilities. One way to do this is to take the reciprocals and then normalize them. So if the odds are $r_H$, $r_D$, $r_A$ the inferred probability for a home win is $$ p_H = \frac{\frac{1}{r_H}}{\frac{1}{r_H} + \frac{1}{r_D} […]

The first and second halves of a football match are both 45 minutes long. So on average, there should be as many goals scored in the first half as in the second half. That makes right? Except for the fact that it’s completely false, this sounds pretty reasonable. I’ve taken a look at all matches […]

Let’s look at how we could model what happens in a football match. We need to model this in a mathematically simple way, that’s not too wrong. One way is to let $X$ and $Y$ be the goals scored by each team, and then assume that they are independent and Poisson distributed. $$ X \sim […]

In the last post I introduced the purpose of this blog and the mission that I’m on: To find out if it’s possible to beat the odds and earn money on sports betting by using math. Getting started seems like a big task. I have to somehow gather a lot of data, analyze it, create […]

I’ve always wondered: Is it possible to reliably win money betting on sports using math? If yes, then how much? Do you get banned by the bookmakers if you actually win consistently? Today I’ll start on a journey to answer these questions. I’ve wondered how I’m going to find out if it’s possible or not, […]